Forrester veröffentlicht heute eine neue 5-Jahres Prognose über das Wachstum der weltweiten Internetnutzung von heute bis 2013.


Wichtige Erkenntnisse aus dem Report sind:


* Die Zahl der Menschen, die online sind, wird um mehr als 45 Prozent wachsen, von heute 1,5 Milliarden Nutzern auf 2,2 Milliarden in 2013.

* Asien wird auch weiterhin der größte weltweite Internet-Wachstumsmotor bleiben: 43 Prozent der weltweiten Online-Bevölkerung wird sich bis 2013 in Asien befinden, mit 17 Prozent der Online-Bevölkerung weltweit in China. Chinas jährliche Internetwachstumsrate wird 11% sein.

* Mit einem Viertel der Online-Nutzer weltweit belegt Europa Platz 2 hinter Asien hinsichtlich der Online-Bevölkerung.

-> Gegenwärtig sind fast die Hälfte der Internetnutzer in Europa auf nur fünf westeuropäische Länder verteilt: Deutschland, Großbritannien, Frankreich, Italien und Spanien.

-> In diesen fünf Märkten variiert die Durchdringung und Wachstumsrate jedoch extrem zwischen hohen 69% in Großbritannien bis zu 49% in Italien.

-> Zwischen 2008 und 2013 wird die Online-Bevölkerung in Großbritannien von 41,3 Millionen (69%) auf 48,7 Millionen (81%) wachsen, in Deutschland von 56,2 Millionen (68%) auf 62,5 Millionen (76%) und in Frankreich von 37,2 Millionen (60%) auf 45,9 Millionen (73%).

* Wachstumsraten in den USA, Westeuropa und den großen Industriestaaten in Asien-Pazifik wie Australien, Japan und Südkorea werden sich auf 1 bis 3 Prozent verringern.

* Bis 2013 werden mehr Menschen in China online sein als in den USA. Die Anzahl der Menschen, die online sind, in Indien wird die Anzahl der Menschen in Japan, Deutschland und Brasilien jeweils überholen.

* Der Mittlere Osten und Afrika zeigen einige der höchsten Internetwachstumsraten weltweit mit Ländern wie Iran, Ägypten und Nigeria an der Spitze.


Anbei die vollständige Presseerklärung von Forrester Research:


Forrester Forecast: Global Online Population To Hit 2.2 Billion By 2013


Emerging Markets Drive Increase; Double-Digit Growth Rates In Asia


Cambridge, Mass., July 21, 2009 . . . The number of people online around the world will grow more than 45 percent to 2.2 billion users over the next five years, according to a new report by Forrester Research, Inc. (Nasdaq: FORR). Asia remains the biggest global Internet growth engine: 43 percent of the world’s online population will reside in Asia by 2013, with 17 percent of the global online population in China. Growth rates in the US, Western Europe, and the major industrialized nations in Asia Pacific such as Australia, Japan, and South Korea will slow to between 1 percent and 3 percent. The top-line, five-year forecast is available to select Forrester clients in the report “Global Online Population Forecast, 2008-2013;” subscribers to Forrester’s ForecastView receive more detailed forecast data.


“While per capita online spending is likely to remain highest in North America, Western Europe, and the developed markets of Asia throughout the next five years, the shifting online population and growing spending power among Asian consumers means that Asian markets will represent a far greater percentage of the total in 2013 than they do today,” said Forrester Research Senior Analyst Zia Daniell Wigder. “Multinational organizations must understand the dynamics of the shifting global online population to ensure that they are positioned to take advantage of emerging international opportunities.”


The Internet user base is increasing in every area of the world. Regional highlights include:


• North America. Online penetration in the US is set to rise from 73 percent to 82 percent over the next five years, representing about a 3 percent annual growth rate. By 2013, US online penetration will be on par with the most highly penetrated markets of Europe and Asia, such as the Netherlands, the UK, Japan, and South Korea.


• Europe. Europe’s Internet growth will be fueled by the continent’s emerging markets. Internet usage in Russia and Turkey will grow by almost 8 percent annually, while growth in Spain’s online population will increase by an average of more than 5 percent each year.


• Asia. China’s online population (already the largest in the world) will rise by nearly 11 percent each year over the next half decade. Other Asian countries with substantial online growth rates include India, Indonesia, Pakistan, and the Philippines. By contrast, growth rates in some of the more mature markets such as Japan and South Korea will rise by less than 2 percent each year.


• Latin America. Brazil is currently the fourth largest market in the world in terms of number of Internet users, but despite a 7 percent annual growth rate over the next five years, it will drop to the No. 5 position in 2010 when it is surpassed by India.


• Africa and the Middle East. The countries of the Middle East and Africa currently represent just 8 percent of the global online population but over the next five years will see some of the highest growth rates in the world, around 13 percent. Egypt, Iran, and Nigeria are among the countries with the highest growth rates in the region.


Countries With The Most Internet Users: 2008


1. US
2. China
3. Japan
4. Brazil
5. Germany


Countries With The Most Internet Users: 2013


1. China
2. US
3. India
4. Japan
5. Brazil


About ForecastView


ForecastView is a syndicated subscription service that provides access to up to 40 forecasts across North America and Western Europe. Clients receive detailed forecast data and important market metrics that they will not get through research reports alone. In addition, they also have unlimited Inquiries with a forecast analyst. Forrester analysts employ a unique methodology that includes deep, consumer demand-side data along with supply-side metrics from proprietary company and industry sources. ForecastView forecasts provide insights into the development of online, mobile, and emerging technology markets. More information about ForecastView is available at http://www.forrester.com/consumerdata/forecastview.


About Forrester Research


Forrester Research, Inc. (Nasdaq: FORR) is an independent research company that provides pragmatic and forward-thinking advice to global leaders in business and technology. Forrester works with professionals in 20 key roles at major companies providing proprietary research, consumer insight, consulting, events, and peer-to-peer executive programs. For more than 25 years, Forrester has been making IT, marketing, and technology industry leaders successful every day. For more information, visit www.forrester.com.